When Adam Peters signed Matt Gay in April, it wasn’t a throwaway move. Peters guaranteed real money to a kicker who, just a few years earlier with the Rams, had been close to automatic. On paper, it was a smart risk: about one in three kickers who slump do rebound after a change of scenery.
But Gay’s track record since leaving Los Angeles tells a tougher story — one that Washington fans are now watching unfold in real time.
The Decline in Indianapolis
Gay was money with the Rams in 2021 and 2022, drilling 94 percent of his kicks each season. His first year in Indianapolis in 2023 didn’t look like an immediate disaster, but the cracks started to show.
Inside 50 yards, he was steady: 16 of 19 from 30 to 49 yards, nearly perfect from closer in.
Beyond 50, though, he collapsed: 3 of 9. Even worse, those misses piled up after a brilliant Week 3 performance where he nailed four 50-plus kicks to beat Baltimore in overtime.
By 2024, the pattern had calcified. Gay hovered at around 81 percent overall, still fine on the easy ones, but unreliable from distance. The Colts, who had once made him the highest-paid kicker in football, pulled the plug after two seasons.
The 2025 Reality Check
Washington hoped Peters’ bet would pay off — that Gay just needed a reset. Instead, the preseason showed more of the same, 60 percent on field goals. And while it’s only been two regular-season games, the early signs feel like a continuation of those struggles. Gay is just 1 of 3 so far, with the lone bright spot being a 51-yarder.
These aren’t the numbers of a kicker digging out of a slump. They’re the numbers of one sinking further.
History Isn’t on His Side
A review of 17 slump cases since 2000 found:
65 percent of kickers in Gay’s spot were out of the league within two years.
29 percent rebounded, but only after switching teams.
Only 1 kicker, Mason Crosby, pulled off the rare in-place fix.
Gay already got his scenery change. If anything, Washington looks like the second chapter in the typical bust script.
A Possible Exception: Jake Elliott
It’s still too early to tell, but Jake Elliott in Philadelphia may be writing a different story.
In 2024, Elliott hit just 77.8 percent of his field goals overall, and a brutal 1-for-7 from beyond 50 yards. That’s the exact kind of long-distance collapse that usually marks the beginning of the end.
But through two games in 2025, Elliott is a perfect 3-for-3 — all from 50 yards or more, including back-to-back 58-yarders. Elliott has 15 games left, but he’s at least he’s showing signs of joining the Mason Crosby category: rare cases where a kicker pulls himself out of a slump without needing a change of scenery.
Gay, by contrast, is trending the other way. His post-Rams struggles have followed him to Indianapolis and now Washington, and the early returns suggest he belongs with the majority who never turn it around.
Why Peters Thought the Odds Were Better
It’s easy to say Peters ignored the numbers, but he had reasons to believe Gay’s chances of rebounding were stronger than the raw one-in-three history.
Proven ceiling: Unlike most kickers who slump, Gay had already stacked elite seasons in Los Angeles. Peters wasn’t gambling on a lifetime mediocrity — he was gambling on a guy who had shown Pro Bowl form.
Contained struggles: In Indianapolis, Gay was still reliable inside 50 yards. His biggest problem was from 50-plus, where he went 3 for 9 in 2023. That’s a red flag, but it’s also a narrower issue than a kicker who suddenly can’t hit from anywhere.
Fresh start effect: Kickers are notoriously mental. Peters may have believed that a reset in Washington’s new culture — away from the baggage of Indy — could unlock the old version of Gay.
Market reality: The alternatives weren’t inspiring. The veteran market is a carousel of retreads, and the draft just produced its own flop in Jake Moody.
Time to Move On
Through the first two games, Gay hasn’t rewarded that gamble. The misses are outweighing the makes, and the same long-distance inconsistency that doomed him in Indy has followed him to Washington.
Peters wasn’t wrong to try. A one-in-three chance at stability is worth a swing. But Gay isn’t trending toward the exceptions. He’s trending with the majority who don’t make it back.
Washington can’t afford to wait around while the losses pile up. Gay may have once been a Pro Bowl leg, but the version they’ve got now looks like the bust the numbers warned about.
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